When it started, seventeen days ago, there were thirty-two teams drawn from all over the world: four from Latin America; four from North, Central America, and the Caribbean; five from Africa; six from Asia (which includes the Middle East and Oceania); and thirteen from Europe. The playing styles and levels of experience on show were highly diverse, the fans uniformly raucous, and there was plenty of early entertainment blended with a few surprise results.
Now, we are down to the final eight teams, and it is evident that FIFA’s world rankings are reliable predictors of World Cup success. Six of the remaining eight teams are ranked in FIFA’s top ten: these are Brazil (1), Argentina (3), France (4), England (5), Netherlands (8) and Portugal (9). They are joined by Croatia (12) and Morocco (22).
Of the five teams ranked above Croatia that are not contesting this year’s quarter finals, Belgium (2), knocked-out in the group stage after losing to Morocco, were weakened by several of their “golden generation” carrying recent injuries and one or two others looking slightly past their prime. Italy (6) very surprisingly failed to qualify for the tournament finals, coming second in their qualifying group behind Switzerland (15) and then losing to North Macedonia (65) in the semi-final of the second-round tournament for second place group teams (the North Macedonians losing to Portugal in the final). Denmark (10) failed to progress beyond the group stage after losing to Australia (38), as did Germany (11) who lost to Japan (24). Spain (6) made it through the group stages but lost their last-sixteen game to Morocco, who are the surprise package of the tournament.
Despite these upsets during the qualifying process and the group stages, the composition of the last eight suggests that FIFA rankings are good indicators of success in tournament football, where consistency matters, along with the ability to take penalties (as Japan and Spain have found to their cost). International football is basically predictable, which does not mean that it is not exciting. Over ninety minutes, quality trumps effort and secures its reward. The delight of the games for the fans is provided by the way that the top teams find the route to victory. There is nothing dull about watching the best players in the best teams, searching for glory on the biggest sporting stage.
Continue reading “Pieces of eight”