Author: Mark Hannam

Some are born rich, some achieve riches, others have riches thrust upon them.  Last week, the owner of a lottery ticket purchased in Illinois won a prize worth up to $1.34bn.  The ticket holder will have to decide whether to take an immediate cash prize of $780.5m, or to take the full amount in instalments over a period of 29 years.  Making this choice will, I assume, depend in part on the life expectancy of the winner, and in part on the way they would respond to Walter Mischel’s marshmallow test.

Before I think about what I would do with a billion dollars, I feel the need for a short digression.  When I was a child, the pound was worth roughly two-and-a-half dollars. The rate varied, month-by-month and year-by-year, but the simple rule of conversion was that one dollar was worth about 40p.  In those days, winning $1.34bn in a US lottery would equate to around £536m, which is a very healthy sum for sure, but only just over halfway to a billion pounds.  Nowadays, the pound is trading at around 1.20 to the dollar, which means that the lucky lottery ticket holder from Illinois is a billionaire in both dollars and pounds. In my lifetime, the pound has lost half its value against the dollar, which makes UK assets – houses, land, companies, and leading football teams – more vulnerable to foreign takeover, and which makes it increasingly hard for British citizens to move to the US without a significant short-term reduction in living standards.  The dollar benefits from the privilège exorbitant of being the leading global reserve currency, but its comparative strength relative to the pound over the past fifty years also reflects the higher calibre of economic policy making in the US.  If there were a marshmallow test for nations, I think we all know that today the UK would make no attempt to defer gratification.

Continue reading “Who wants to be a billionaire?”

Start spreading the news: after two years of pandemic restrictions, for the past six months it has been possible to travel once again.  I have been taking advantage and getting onto planes and trains to enjoy the capital pleasures of Europe.  Top of the list was Lisbon, which I visited over Christmas, followed by Paris in February, Athens in May, and then Berlin and Edinburgh in June.  I will be in Belfast briefly this month, before a trip to Vienna in August, on my way to a friend’s wedding in Transylvania.  Having grown-up in a monochrome commuter town, I count myself lucky to have escaped suburbia for the multi-coloured metropolis.   Now, I live in the centre of London and when I go on holiday, I want to wake up in a city. 

That’s not to say that the countryside does not have its pleasures.  I enjoy spending time on the west coast of Ireland, which I visit regularly.  I like the silence of the moors, save for the sound of water cascading down mountain streams, and the challenge of climbing the steep local summits, to enjoy views of the Atlantic and the sea breeze in my face.  It’s easy to find that I’m king of the hill after walking for hours without another person in sight.  And later, in the evenings, to sit and read with only the sound of the wind for company.  There is comfort to be found in the solitude of the wild places of the earth, and a sense of rejuvenation right through the very heart of it. 

Continue reading “Small town blues”

Last week, the football team I support played against our local rivals.  I followed the game on a live-text website using my mobile phone, checking on the score every few minutes for the first hour or so, until the result became foregone, which is the next best thing to watching the game live on television.   One of the great joys of sport is experiencing the changing fortunes of your team, or the individual for whom you are cheering, in ‘real time’: this is true for the ten seconds of the Olympic 100m final, the hour and a half of a Premiership game in North London, the five days of an Ashes Test match, or the three weeks of the Tour de France.  There is, no doubt, some pleasure to be taken from a long period of sporting success for a team or an individual, but this is not quite the same as the thrill of the live game or race, and as anyone who has played sport seriously knows, you are only as good as your most recent result.  It’s the short term – the present moment – that matters most.

In this respect, sport is quite dissimilar from the rest of our lives.  Most of the time, it’s the long term that counts and our pleasures, benefits, and advantages are accumulated slowly and steadily; likewise, pains, costs, and disadvantages pile up incrementally, often unnoticed, until the task of dealing with them becomes overwhelming.  Compounding is not just one of the wonders of the world, it is also one of its fundamental operating principles.  For which reason, if we want to know what is going on around us, to understand the deep causes that determine the way the world works, rather than look at day-to-day fluctuations and momentary variations, we need to study the forces at work over the long run; we need to attend to la longue durée.  I would rather watch a race between hares, but to comprehend the world we need to keep track of the tortoises.

Continue reading “La longue durée”

Would you swallow the blue pill or the red pill? 

The blue pill returns you to the invisible prison that is your artificially simulated reality, whereas the red pill allows you to discover the truth of your enslavement by the machines.  Have you ever wondered why you only have two pills to choose between?   If you buy a pack of chocolate M&Ms you also get brown, green, yellow, and orange options. 

In a famous poem, Robert Frost described his moment of choice between two paths in a wood, knowing that he might never pass that way again he surmised that the choice he was about to make would later seem to him to have made all the difference.  Did he never consider the possibility that he could reject both paths, and make his own, new track through the woods?   In the mid-nineteenth century, the Danish philosopher, Søren Kierkegaard, wrote a famous book, Either/Or, in which he compared two approaches to the conduct of life, one primarily aesthetic the other ethical.  Is there not a third way?  And not just a third but, perhaps, a fourth, fifth, sixth, and seventh way to live.  What is the attraction of binary choices?  In part, for the decision maker, choices become quicker and easier for there are only two option to consider.  Our bodies and our language normalise this way of thinking: on the one hand, on the other hand.  In part, however, the binary structure allows the person who is presenting our choices to us, to seek to persuade us to do something we might otherwise be reluctant to do, by making the alternative highly unattractive.  There is significant rhetorical force in the design of a false dichotomy. 

Continue reading “False dichotomies”

When I was ten years old, I asked my parents to buy me a guitar so that I could learn how to play.  I had been given a vinyl recording of classical works transcribed for the guitar, performed by Andrés Segovia, and I decided that I would learn to play like him.  I duly received a small guitar, with nylon strings suitable for a beginner, and I started going to weekly lessons to learn the basics of how to position the fingers of my left hand against the frets and how to use the fingers of my right hand to pluck the strings.  In due course, I bought some music scores for guitar – works by Bach, Sor, Villa-Lobos, and Schubert simplified for those just starting to learn to play – and I was delighted when, after much practice and having overcome many mistakes, I was able to play a few bars. 

I never achieved my goal of becoming as good as Segovia.  There were, I now understand, three reasons for this failure.  First, I did not practice often enough or long enough.  After an initial burst of enthusiasm, my desire to learn how to play scales, read music, and improve my finger technique quickly diminished, and anyway was never able to compete with my duty to complete my homework and my desire to play sport.   Second, my taste in music changed.  For a while, I imagined that I could become as good a guitarist as Carlos Santana; then I lowered my expectations and decided that it would be sufficient to become merely a competent player, so long as I could write songs that were as good as Bob Dylan’s.  I bought an acoustic guitar, with steel strings and a plectrum, and switched my attention from Baroque to Blues, but the results were not much better.  The third and most important reason for my failure to become a great guitarist was my inability to distinguish sounds accurately.  I have met people who can listen to a melody once and then play it, whereas I struggled to tune the strings of my guitar.  Generally, I have no idea what key a song is in, nor can I judge the intervals between notes, nor do I really understand how the chord sequences work.  Whether this is at root a physical problem – that the sensitivity of my ears is just not good enough – or, rather, the consequence of a lack of training of my sense of sound, I do not know.  At some point, however, it became clear to me that I was never going to become a competent musician, let alone a great one.

Continue reading “Changing the tempo”