When it started, seventeen days ago, there were thirty-two teams drawn from all over the world: four from Latin America; four from North, Central America, and the Caribbean; five from Africa; six from Asia (which includes the Middle East and Oceania); and thirteen from Europe. The playing styles and levels of experience on show were highly diverse, the fans uniformly raucous, and there was plenty of early entertainment blended with a few surprise results.
Now, we are down to the final eight teams, and it is evident that FIFA’s world rankings are reliable predictors of World Cup success. Six of the remaining eight teams are ranked in FIFA’s top ten: these are Brazil (1), Argentina (3), France (4), England (5), Netherlands (8) and Portugal (9). They are joined by Croatia (12) and Morocco (22).
Of the five teams ranked above Croatia that are not contesting this year’s quarter finals, Belgium (2), knocked-out in the group stage after losing to Morocco, were weakened by several of their “golden generation” carrying recent injuries and one or two others looking slightly past their prime. Italy (6) very surprisingly failed to qualify for the tournament finals, coming second in their qualifying group behind Switzerland (15) and then losing to North Macedonia (65) in the semi-final of the second-round tournament for second place group teams (the North Macedonians losing to Portugal in the final). Denmark (10) failed to progress beyond the group stage after losing to Australia (38), as did Germany (11) who lost to Japan (24). Spain (6) made it through the group stages but lost their last-sixteen game to Morocco, who are the surprise package of the tournament.
Despite these upsets during the qualifying process and the group stages, the composition of the last eight suggests that FIFA rankings are good indicators of success in tournament football, where consistency matters, along with the ability to take penalties (as Japan and Spain have found to their cost). International football is basically predictable, which does not mean that it is not exciting. Over ninety minutes, quality trumps effort and secures its reward. The delight of the games for the fans is provided by the way that the top teams find the route to victory. There is nothing dull about watching the best players in the best teams, searching for glory on the biggest sporting stage.
Away from the football, the big talking point at the tournament has been the strong pressure exerted on several of the European teams by FIFA (on behalf of the Qatari hosts) not to allow their team captains to wear the One Love Armband, whose rainbow symbol signals support for LGBTQ+ rights. The argument, as presented by the hosts and their apologists, is that visiting teams should not be allowed to make veiled or direct criticism of the values, customs, and laws of the host nation. The idea seems to be that respect for social customs can be bought (as the right to host the tournament was bought) rather than earned. It is hard to see how this argument will lead to anything other than further discredit to the Gulf States for their social repression and to FIFA for its supine support of them. Forbidding criticism both acknowledges the presence of the critic and the appeal of their message.
On a positive note, it is encouraging to see that so many of the young men who play the world’s most popular sport at the very highest level, are willing to take a public stand in defence of human rights and to promote issues of diversity and inclusion. I cannot imagine any member of England’s World Cup winning team of 1966 thinking that they had a responsibility to do this. In those days, senior members of the English Football Association routinely dismissed women’s football as amateurish and irrelevant. Not anymore. The beautiful game is now everyone’s game to play, and this is one cultural change from the past fifty years that I am delighted to have experienced.
My final – highly objective – observation of the tournament to date has been the wonderful contribution made by the players (past and present) of my favourite club team, Tottenham Hotspur. Croatia beat Japan in a penalty shoot-out after a fantastic headed goal by Spurs winger Ivan Perisic, and their chances of making further progress depend on the form of their impressive captain, ex-Spurs midfielder Luka Modric. They play Brazil next, whose top scorer thus far is Spurs centre forward Richarlison, whose second goal against Serbia might well turn out to be the best of the tournament. Meanwhile, the match between France and England will showcase Spurs centre forward and England captain, Harry Kane, against Spurs goalkeeper and France captain, Hugo Lloris.
With all this world class talent on display it’s not hard to see why Tottenham are now favourites to win both the Premier League and the Champions League when the European season re-starts in 2023, especially once they sign Bellingham and Mbappe during the January transfer window. Obviously.